Fire ArcaneTier 2
at 紙牌屋店冠賽
decks
2
(15.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
1-6-0
overall winrate
14.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
32.8%
avg ELO -8.6 per match
expected value
42.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1232
· median 1232
· range 1151–1313
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1151
Q1 1247
Q3 1352
1409
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 15.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Water Allies | 15.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.7 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.3% | -21.9 |
| Fire Suited | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.7 |
| Water Genbu | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.2 |
